Saturday, December 17, 2011

Marty and the Fallacy of Retrospective Determinism

Have you ever considered how different your life would be had you changed just one thing that happened in it? It seems to be the consistent theme of many time travel stories. Someone makes a mistake and has a second chance granted to them. A do over to make things right. It's called Retrospective Determinism. It doesn't work. Basically, it's an "if only I had (blank) then my life would be (blank)" type of thinking that is best left to your dreams. And the Back to the Future film series is full of it.

In Part 1 of the series, Marty alters the events that lead to his parents getting together. He fixes things and the future finds them in far better shape than before. No big deal. Here's the big deal: Marty has created, or more likely been transported into, another dimension of the multiverse.

For example, we currently reside in what we refer to as the universe. There is only one plane of existence that we can occupy in our universe. In the multiverse, there are multiple planes of existence that we (or multiple duplicates of us) do occupy. There can an infinite number of multiverses as there are an infinite number of events in our universe to alter. Each universe in the multiverse creates its own universe that, in turn, creates its own multiverse. The process goes on like this forever.

Think about your own life. Consider all the decisions and choices you have made (and all the decisions and choices others have also made) in your life that have all happened to form your personal existence. There have been a lot. If only one thing was ever altered in your life, you would have a new existence. That will produce you have two existences. If only one event in your new existence was altered, you now have three existences. And the process could go on forever.

What if you were born in another town, state, or country? Which one? Millions of towns and cities, thousands of states, providences and regions, and hundreds of countries worldwide. that's already a lot of existences. Different schools? A different major in college? A different career? A different company to work for? A different person for your spouse? Different kids? What if your parents had different kids? What if you weren't born in all but one of your parent's existences? That is an infinite number of possible multiverses, right?

You reading this sentence is pretty unique if you think about it. But don't. It's all very confusing. I have probably confused you pretty good. So let's get back on topic and relate this all to Marty.

It is extremely improbable that in the whole multiverse, George and Lorraine would recognize Marty in the altered 1985, his older siblings would recognize him, his older siblings would look the same, that they would have the same names, they would live in the same house, and so many other things that have happened over the last 30 years to change the McFly family.

In the original 1955 timeline, George and Lorraine were somewhat forced together due largely in part to Lorraine's Florence Nightingale Syndrome. George went along with it because Lorraine was totally into him and she was pretty hot. In this 1985, (the original or Prime 1985) they seem to be stuck in a marriage of convenience. George has no backbone or ambition and Lorraine has let her beauty go. In the altered 1955, George wins Lorraine's love and respect. Thirty years later, they are still very much in love. They still go on dates and flirt with each other. One of the big differences in these universes is the change in the way George and Lorraine love each other.

Without getting too graphic, George McFly has produced a lot of sperm in his life. Marty was the result of just one sperm from George and just one egg from Lorraine. In the original timeline, he was their third child and born 13 years after their first date. There is reason to believe this is because the two of them just didn't get around to doing it a whole lot. George's lack of ambition and Lorraine's syndrome beginning to wain by this time affecting their love life. But with the events of the altered 1955 timeline, they seem much more in love, more flirtatious with each other, and more physically affectionate. They probably did/do it a lot more in this universe. There is simply a much better probability that they would have had their children a lot earlier in their lives (if not more) and therefore there shouldn't be a Marty in this universe. Or at least not the one we know.

The fact that in two universes the exact same sperm fertilized the exact same egg at the exact same moment to produce a son they give the exact name is highly improbable. But that it happened another two times with Marty's brother and sister is even more improbable. Without prior knowledge and precise timing, it is really unbelievable the coincidence this makes as this is the universe that Marty travels to.

The fallacy of Retrospective Determinism is that just because it happened, it isn't (or wasn't) always going to happen. You cannot assume that because Marty was born in one universe that he will exist (especially the exact same state) in another universe. He is unique to his own universe. The memories and events in his prime universe are his and his alone. Only he knows the difference between the two universes. Trying to adapt to his new universe, without any prior knowledge or memories, Marty may stumble and fail at this supposedly "better" universe. All he has ever known is completely gone. No memories of a better childhood with his parents and siblings. Only the old ones from an old universe he is no longer a part of that, for all purposes...is missing its Marty.

My wife and I lost our first child early in our pregnancy. Two months later, we were pregnant with our son, who just turned two this past week. I often wonder about our first child. Would they grow to be a boy or a girl? What would she look like? What would his birthday be? The fact is it isn't really anything more than a fantasy. That universe doesn't exist for me. What does exist is the fact that if that first pregnancy went to term and a baby was born, I wouldn't have my son, whom I love very much and can't imagine a world without him that doesn't break my heart. He simply wouldn't exist in another universe the way he is. I wouldn't want to exist there either.

George and Lorraine's prime universe, which wasn't that great to begin with, now has a missing child in their family that will never show up. Marty's better life and family in this new universe will lead to the ruin of his old family. That universe still exists as Marty is from there. His prime family still exists somewhere. And they're all wondering where Marty went.

The official story might be that Marty followed in the footsteps of his uncle "Jailbird" Joey and shot the old scientist he hung out with in the JC Penny parking lot at the Twin Pines Mall. He stole the dead Doc's car, never to be seen again. Much better than a poor family with a missing child.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Four DeLoreans

November 12, 1955.

A lot happened on this day in Hill Valley. All kinds of awesome stuff. Hey, did you know there were four DeLorean time machines in town on this day, too? Not only that, but they're all in town at the same time.

One (from Part 1 of the series) gets struck by lightning at precisely 10:04pm.

One (from Part 2) has hover conversion. Old Biff brought it from the year 2015 to give the Gray's Sports Almanac to young Biff.

One (from Part 2) has hover conversion. Doc and Marty bring it from the 1985A timeline (also known as the Hell Valley timeline.) This DeLorean also gets struck by lightning during the storm and sends Doc to 1885.

One (from Part 3) is hidden in the Old Delgado mine by Doc in 1885 to be unearthed the next day by Marty and 1955 Doc.

The movie paid more attention to the notion that there are two Martys, two Docs, and two Biffs on November 12, 1955.

Also in the series, there are two DeLoreans on October 26, 1985 at the same time. One crashed into the XXX theater near the Courthouse and one at the Lone Pine Mall about to travel to 1955. Likewise there are two Martys.

It is unknown how at what point in 2015 Doc arrived in the future nor is it known how long he was there before he returns to 1985 to retrieve Marty to help his future son. If he went exactly 30 years in the future, then he would have arrived on October 26, 2015. Doc, Marty, and Jennifer arrive on October 21st and leave later that day. At this point, we can assume that no DeLorean coexisted with another this year.

As stated in a previous post, there are two DeLoreans in Hill Valley in 1885. The first one arrived on January 1st of that year. After falling 50 feet from broken flying circuits, it breaks. Doc is unable to repair it and hides it in the old Delgado mine on September 1st. Marty arrives the next day, September 2nd, and then goes back to the future on September 7th, 1885. So these DeLoreans coexist for five days.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

You Look So Familiar!

So in Part 1, Marty McFly goes back to 1955 and, after messing it up, gets his parents together so they can make his siblings and him. After getting the necessary 1.21 gigawatts from the lightning that strikes the clock tower, he goes back to 1985 to find his parents are much better off that in the original 1985 timeline. Basically, they are both into each other and tennis and have extra money to buy their third child a new 4x4 Toyota.

In the original timeline, Marty's mother Lorraine reminisces about how she and George first met and their first kiss at the Enchantment Under the Sea dance. She obviously has told her children this story before, so it must be a lasting memory. Probably because her life is the pits and that was the one good thing in it.

Now in the new 1985 timeline, she must remember how she and George first met because it's an even more memorable story. She was about to get raped by the school bully and George stood up to him and knocked him out and there was this guy Calvin Klein, who also went by Marty, that was in school for about a week and then disappeared and I had the hots for him, but he kept trying to get your dad to ask me out. He kissed me at the Enchantment Under the Sea dance while that guy Calvin/Marty played guitar with the band. Later that same night he told me to go easy on one of my kids if he ever spilled juice on the carpet and left. Then I muttered "Marty. I like that name." And that's why I named Marty Marty.

Now that's a story to tell the kids about how you met. Something you surely won't forget. You actually named one of your children after that guy you knew only for a week in high school. And call me crazy, but you look exactly like him, too.

"George, back me up on this."

"What, Lorraine?"

That guy we knew for a week in high school that got us together. He looked exactly like Marty does. That guy Calvin. Or Marty. His uncle called him Marty. Hey! His uncle looked just like that guy you're always hanging out with all the time, Marty. The scientist guy. He looked just like him. I had such a huge crush on that guy Calvin/Marty until your dad punched Biff out. Biff! George, get Bitch in here. He saw him, too. He'd say you look just like him. Biff chased that guy around the square and actually wrecked his car into a manure truck. Biff, tell him about that Calvin/Marty guy.

"I don't want to, Mrs. McFly."

"Tell him, Bitch Biff. Or I'm not paying you."

"He was riding a skateboard thing like the one you always ride, Marty. But it was about 20 years before they were invented. I also tried to kill him in a tunnel when he tried to steal an almanac from the future that a distant relative gave to me. He had another kind of skateboard, but it didn't have any wheels. It just sort of hovered."

"Alright, Biff. That's enough. Get back to trimming the hedge."

So yeah. Three people at the McFly house would remember this guy Calvin/Marty. Especially the Marty part. Even though they had a son born just a couple years after that night, they named him Dave. Thirteen years after that night they had a second son and named him Marty. Thirteen years later. They had to have remembered the guy pretty good. And now that kid Marty is about as old as that guy Marty was and he looks just like him and talks just like him and hangs out with that old scientist guy like that guy did.

Weird...

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Dear, Please Hire My Old Rapist.*

In Part 1 of the series, Biff and his gang pulled Marty out of a car while he was parked with Lorraine outside the Enchantment Under the Sea Dance. The gang put him shut Marty in the trunk of the Marvin Berry's (Chuck's cousin) band's car. Biff, alone with Lorraine, decides to rape her.

That is, until George McFly comes to her rescue and knocks Biff out. They kiss at the Enchantment Under the Sea Dance and Marty's existence is saved (we'll discuss this improbability in a future post.) Marty travels back to the future to find that Biff now works as a personal assistant of some sort to George.

Everyone seems to have forgotten that Biff attempted to rape Lorraine. He has access to their house, their mail, the wax for their cars (including that new 4x4.) And all the McFlys seem cool with the fact that he once tried to rape one of them.

How long he has been working for the McFlys is unknown, but the way George has him by the short and curlies, it has either been a long time or a very short time and he's got to lay down the hammer. It's not like a guy like Biff drops out of your life after high school and then comes back into it looking for a personal assistant job. Without getting punched by George, he seemed to have a middle management position where George wrote his reports (Biff retyped them.) So if George McFly was absent from his life, it is probable that Biff would have assumed a similar job in the new timeline (we'll discuss inconsistent multiple timelines in a future post.)

So this leads me to believe that Biff has been working as a personal assistant for George (or the McFly family) ever since high school. George knocked him out cold once and he's been his bitch ever since. Maybe he lost all his credibility as a bully after that and was ashamed from then on. Maybe Lorraine threatened to go to the cops. Either way, Biff has been around their kids their whole lives. Not that he's a pedophile, but I wouldn't let someone who tried to rape me around my babies.`

Marty's like 17 or so. His sister Linda looks to be in her early twenties (let's say 22) and his brother, Dave, looks to be in his mid to late twenties (let's say 27.) It was only three years since the rape attempt occurred that Dave was born. Eight years after the event, a girl was born. Marty was born just 13 years after that night. Such a traumatic experience would not escape a mother's mind that quickly.

George and Lorraine may forgive and forget after 30 years and hire the old school bully who once tried to take your innocence to wax the car. But certainly not immediately or three years later when they started their little family.

But she also seems to have forgotten all about it by the time she gets to the dance, so...

Go ahead, George dear. Hire my old rapist.*




*Sorry. "Attempted."

Friday, December 9, 2011

This Scientist is an Idiot.

Dr. Emmett "Doc" Brown has invented many things. An automated dog feeding apparatus, bunch of clocks that are all off by 25 minutes, a ridiculously large guitar amplifier, etc. He's a scientist. A mad scientist, for all intents and purposes, that has mastered the lock to man's eternal jail: time.

He's also a complete idiot.

In Part 3 of the series, Marty McFly (in 1955 having just witnessed Doc and the DeLorean be struck by lightning and receiving the letter from Doc written in 1885) arrives to tell Doc's 1955 counterpart that he's back from the future. The letter basically states that Doc is happy in 1885 and he hid the DeLorean in the old Delgado Mine for Marty to use to get back to 1985. The time circuits are fried, but with the help of the 1955 Doc it should be no problem to fix them.

They find the Delorean in the mine and also Doc's tombstone. Yadda yadda yadda (we have to go back to 1885 to save Doc's life and what not.) 1955 Doc fixes the time circuits (mounted on the hood) and puts new tires on the DeLorean. They take it to the drive-in theater and Marty goes back in time and runs into the indians in 1885. He hides it in a cave (with a bear) and discovers an arrow has pierced the fuel line. Gasoline leaks into the dirt.


This means there are two DeLorean time machines in Hill Valley in 1885. One in the old (currently new) Delgado Mine and one in the cave with the bear.

We expect that the one that Doc Brown hid in the mine is in fairly good condition minus the fried time circuits. The one in the bear cave is over 70 years old. The rubber fuel line was probably fragile to begin with. But it is the Bear Cave DeLorean that they choose to attempt to escape from 1885. But there's no gas stations in 1885. They have to find another way to get it up to speed. After failing to reach 88mph with a team of horses, Doc pours the strongest stuff the bartender has into the tank and blows the fuel injection manifold out the back. Of course it does. It's a technical mechanism over 70 years old! "It'll take me a month to rebuild it," Doc says.

Right. Except you have a perfectly good fuel injection manifold right over there in the old Delgado Mine, you idiot! Just leave a note for your 1955 counterpart that he needs to replace that, too. Even if it takes 1955 Doc a month to rebuild it, it won't matter because he has a time machine. He has to fix the time circuits anyway. Why not a little fuel injection manifold as well? You have two of everything. It is literally the same car. Steal the fuel lines off the Delgado Mine DeLorean while you're in there. Or the gas in the tank...

Well, it can be assumed that if Doc thought he would be sealing the DeLorean in the mine for 70 years that he would drain the fluids from the car. So there probably would be no gas in the tank of the Delgado Mine DeLorean. That would be just too easy. But, hey, we have a scientist here. In 1885, he has already made a sick super scope rifle and a massive, barn sized freezer that makes one dirty ice cube at a time...Surely he knows the chemical composition of petrol or ethanol or some derivative better than "the strongest stuff" the bartender in a no-name frontier town has to offer? He sure knows the chemical composition of his high octane boost Duraflame logs to make a steam locomotive reach high speed. Why not make one gallon of gas to get back to the future?

Idiot.